Executive Summary:
This article examines the impact of private labels and consumer brand preference on retail, utilizing data from Prosper Insights & Analytics across various product categories. The analysis spans from 2014 to 2024, providing insights into trends and shifts in consumer behavior.
- Private label shares vary across product categories, with categories like napkins and foils showing high private label penetration.
- The average annual growth rate (AGR) of private label shares is 3.3%, with notable growth in categories like facial tissues.
- Assuming linear growth, private label share is projected to reach 14.2% in the next ten years.
- No preference shares are significant across categories, with an average of 39.9%, four times higher than private label shares.
- The average AGR of no preference shares is 1.1%, slower than private labels.
- Projected growth suggests no preference shares could reach 50.4% in the next decade.
- Walmart and Amazon’s dominance is evident across Women’s Clothing, Bedding, and Groceries; online retailers, particularly Amazon, demonstrate significant growth, challenging brick-and-mortar stores; Membership Warehouses and Internet retailers thrive, contrasting sharp declines in Department Stores.
- The rise of private labels and no brand preference signifies a shifting consumer landscape, challenging traditional brand loyalty.
- Retailers need to adapt to the growing influence of online channels and cater to evolving consumer preferences for private labels and non-branded products.
- Manufacturers face a significant threat to their market share, with a forecasted decrease of 25.6% over the next decade.
The study underscores the importance of understanding evolving consumer preferences and adapting retail strategies accordingly. As private labels and consumers without brand preferences grow, retailers and manufacturers must innovate to maintain relevance in a competitive market landscape.
Customer Preferences in Retail: Private Labels and Brand Loyalty
By Dr. Martin Block, Professor Emeritus, Northwestern University, Retail Analytics Council
The impact of both private labels and no brand preference on retail is measurable from the perspective of the consumer. Using self-report data from Prosper Insights, which measures a variety of product categories every month, the development of retail private labels and no brand preference can be estimated. “Killing Brand Softly,” published in the Journal of Brand Strategy in 2016, indicated the growth of no brand preference and the dramatic rise of the Internet as a retail shopping source. The effort has not been updated since. Brand preference is coded from open-ended responses to a favorite brand or retailer question across various categories. Private labels include generics and specific brands such as Kirkland, Equate, Great Value, and Up and Up. The analysis shows a ten-year trend represented by an annual growth rate (slope) and then expressed as a percentage of the last month’s percentage or dollar value to make it easier to compare across categories.
Private Labels
The definition of a private brand label ties the brand to a particular retailer. To attempt to generalize across specific retailers’ private labels, they are aggregated into particular categories, as shown in Table 1. The share is for the leading brand in the category. The month indicates when the data was collected: May through December is 2023, and January through March is 2024.
Table 1: Product Categories
| Category | Month | Leading Brand | Share |
| Glass Cleaner | January | Windex | 43.0 |
| Bleach | February | Clorox | 41.7 |
| Dish Detergent | January | Dawn | 41.1 |
| Laundry Detergent | February | Tide | 31.4 |
| Razors | March | Gillette | 29.8 |
| Paper Towels | January | Bounty | 26.9 |
| Foils | November | Reynolds | 26.6 |
| Toothpaste | May | Crest | 26.5 |
| Facial | March | Kleenex | 26.3 |
| Insect Repellent | June | OFF! | 25.7 |
| Bath Soap | May | Dove | 24.3 |
| Toilet Tissue | March | Charmin | 22.5 |
| Mouthwash | May | Listerine | 19.8 |
| Storage Bags | November | Ziploc | 19.7 |
| Air Fresheners | January | Glade | 18.7 |
| Pain Relievers | December | Tylenol | 15.2 |
| Cereal | August | Kellogg’s | 13.9 |
| Antiperspirant | March | Dove | 12.6 |
| Plastic Wraps | November | Glad | 12.1 |
| Cold Medications | December | Vicks | 11.6 |
| Dinner Entrees | October | Stouffer’s | 9.8 |
| Pizza | October | Digiorno | 9.6 |
| Shampoo | March | Suave | 9.5 |
| Ice Cream | October | Breyers | 9.1 |
| Napkins | November | Bounty | 5.6 |
| Vitamins | December | One A Day | 3.7 |
| Average | 20.6 |
Private label shares are shown in Table 2. Added is the AGR divided by the last month’s share, which indicates the relative change over the last ten years. Also added is the average purchase cycle in weeks. Napkins are the category with the highest private label share. Similar categories such as foils, paper towels, plastic wraps, and toilet tissue are high. Facial tissues are the highest-growing private label category. Only plastic wraps and cold medications show a decline. The overall average private label share among these 26 categories is 9.7%, compared to an average of 20.6% for the leading brand. The average annual growth as a percentage is 3.3%.
Table 2: Private Label Shares
| Category | Brand | Leading Share | Private Share | AGR/Share | Weeks |
| Napkins | Bounty | 5.6 | 23.7 | -0.1 | 3.8 |
| Foils | Reynolds | 26.6 | 19.6 | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Paper Towels | Bounty | 26.9 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Plastic Wraps | Glad | 12.1 | 18.5 | -0.9 | 4.3 |
| Storage Bags | Ziploc | 19.7 | 17.8 | 1.0 | 4.3 |
| Toilet Tissue | Charmin | 22.5 | 15.7 | 2.2 | 4.3 |
| Pain Relievers | Tylenol | 15.2 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Ice Cream | Breyers | 9.1 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Vitamins | One A Day | 3.7 | 11.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| Facial | Kleenex | 26.3 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 4.0 |
| Bleach | Clorox | 41.7 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Pizza | Digiorno | 9.6 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Glass Cleaner | Windex | 43.0 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Cold Medications | Vicks | 11.6 | 7.8 | -0.2 | 4.2 |
| Mouthwash | Listerine | 19.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Razors | Gillette | 29.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 4.5 |
| Dinner Entrees | Stouffer’s | 9.8 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 |
| Dish Detergent | Dawn | 41.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Laundry Detergent | Tide | 31.4 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| Cereal | Kellogg’s | 13.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Air Fresheners | Glade | 18.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Shampoo | Suave | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| Bath Soap | Dove | 24.3 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 4.1 |
| Insect Repellent | OFF! | 25.7 | 3.0 | 3.9 | |
| Anti-perspirant | Dove | 12.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| Toothpaste | Crest | 26.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Average | 20.6 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
Table 3 shows the no preference shares for the 26 product categories. Added is the percentage reporting a purchase in the category. High on the list of no-preference categories are vitamins, napkins, and, interestingly, frozen dinner entrees. Only insect repellent shows any decline in no preference share. The overall average for no preference shares at 39.9% is approximately four times that of the private label share. The annual growth rate is slower at 1.1%. Private label share growth is about three times fast.
Table 3: No Preference
| Brand | Leading Share | No Preference | Agr/Share | Purchase | Weeks | |
| Vitamins | One A Day | 3.7 | 68.4 | 0.6 | 77.0 | 3.9 |
| Napkins | Bounty | 5.6 | 58.1 | 1.3 | 76.6 | 3.8 |
| Insect Repellent | OFF! | 25.7 | 56.9 | -0.3 | ||
| Dinner Entrees | Stouffer’s | 9.8 | 52.9 | 0.7 | 75.5 | 2.6 |
| Pain Relievers | Tylenol | 15.2 | 52.8 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 4.3 |
| Plastic Wraps | Glad | 12.1 | 50.7 | 1.8 | 80.7 | 4.3 |
| Pizza | Digiorno | 9.6 | 48.2 | 0.6 | 83.5 | 3.0 |
| Foils | Reynolds | 26.6 | 46.7 | 2.4 | 89.2 | 4.8 |
| Facial | Kleenex | 26.3 | 44.2 | 1.8 | 77.1 | 4.0 |
| Ice Cream | Breyers | 9.1 | 42.1 | 1.8 | 88.9 | 3.3 |
| Storage Bags | Ziploc | 19.7 | 41.8 | 2.0 | 85.9 | 4.3 |
| Air Fresheners | Glade | 18.7 | 41.1 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 3.6 |
| Bleach | Clorox | 41.7 | 38.5 | 0.9 | 78.3 | 3.9 |
| Razors | Gillette | 29.8 | 38.1 | 0.9 | 83.5 | 4.5 |
| Glass Cleaner | Windex | 43.0 | 37.8 | 1.6 | 84.4 | 4.8 |
| Mouthwash | Listerine | 19.8 | 36.3 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 4.1 |
| Bath Soap | Dove | 24.3 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 88.1 | 4.1 |
| Cereal | Kellogg’s | 13.9 | 33.2 | 1.0 | 84.8 | 2.9 |
| Toilet Tissue | Charmin | 22.5 | 31.9 | 1.7 | 95.4 | 4.3 |
| Paper Towels | Bounty | 26.9 | 31.5 | 1.8 | 93.5 | 4.3 |
| Dish Detergent | Dawn | 41.1 | 31.2 | 0.6 | 93.0 | 4.6 |
| Anti-perspirant | Dove | 12.6 | 29.3 | 2.0 | 73.9 | 3.8 |
| Shampoo | Suave | 9.5 | 29.1 | 2.1 | 94.5 | 4.9 |
| Laundry Detergent | Tide | 31.4 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 95.2 | 4.4 |
| Toothpaste | Crest | 26.5 | 27.6 | 0.0 | 95.3 | 4.6 |
| Cold Medications | Vicks | 11.6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 69.3 | 4.2 |
| Average | 20.6 | 39.9 | 1.1 | 84.2 | 4.1 |
The correlation between the share size and growth rate for private labels is -0.59, compared to -.012 for no preference, reflecting the larger size for the no preference share. Both are, however, increasing. Purchasing has only a -.04 correlation with private shares and a -.027 with no preference share. A similar pattern is seen with a purchase cycle and private label of 0.10, and an inverse relation with no preference share at -0.31. It is also worth noting that private label and no preference share are moderately related at 0.38.
Assuming continued linear growth for the next ten years, the overall private label share would reach 14.2%, and the no preference share would be 50.4%. Combining these leaves only 34.4% of manufacturer brands. Today, in 2024, that number is 47.6%, representing a 25.6% decrease in the overall manufacturer share.
Retail Categories
Categorizing retailers is a challenge since they are represented by large national chains all the way to small, locally owned stores. In addition, they have tended to specialize in a single class of goods, but even this is expanding. Even the chains are not uniformly distributed across the entire country. The categorization here consists of eight categories that allow the consideration of changes in store type and no preference.
Beginning with Women’s Clothing, Table 4 shows that Walmart is the leading shopped most often store by all adults. This is followed closely by Amazon. While Walmart’s share is increasing, Amazon is increasing at nearly ten times the rate, predicting that Amazon will take over and lead a safe bet within the year. Among the brands with at least 1.0 percent share, SHEIN is dramatically the fastest growing, and JC Penney the fastest declining.
Clearly, the fastest growing type of retailer in this category is the Internet, with a sharp drop in department stores. Specialty clothing stores remain relatively flat. No preference is essentially the largest category, with a steady increase of 3.85%.
Table 4: Women’s Clothing
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| Walmart | 11.05 | 1.42 |
| Amazon | 10.81 | 11.66 |
| Kohl’s | 8.99 | -5.50 |
| Macy’s | 7.28 | -7.57 |
| Target | 3.12 | 0.60 |
| SHEIN | 2.59 | 24.61 |
| JC Penney | 2.05 | -23.10 |
| TJ Maxx | 1.86 | 0.64 |
| Ross | 1.80 | -1.92 |
| Old Navy | 1.71 | -1.48 |
| No Preference | 22.54 | 3.85 |
| Internet | 13.40 | 11.72 |
| Membership Warehouse | 0.55 | 6.66 |
| Specialty – Apparel | 17.00 | 0.11 |
| Discount Store | 20.66 | 0.02 |
| Catalog | 1.05 | -1.63 |
| Department Store | 22.10 | -9.12 |
| Spend | 59.68 | 2.98 |
Bedding, Linens, and Draperies have a similar pattern to Women’s Clothing, as shown in Table 5. Walmart is the leading store that is reported to be shopped most often, followed by Amazon. Bed Bath & Beyond and, again, JC Penney are in decline. Discount stores overall are almost flat. Membership Warehouses and Home Improvement Stores are still small but are increasing steadily. The Department Store and the Specialty Home Store are declining. No Preference is the leading category, with a solid annual increase of 2.43%.
Table 5: Bedding/Linens/Draperies
| 2024 | AGR % | ||
| Walmart | 17.24 | 0.97 | |
| Amazon | 14.45 | 9.21 | |
| Target | 6.94 | 0.66 | |
| Kohl’s | 5.34 | -2.79 | |
| Macy’s | 4.55 | -1.33 | |
| Bed Bath & Beyond | 4.06 | -24.77 | |
| JC Penney | 2.05 | -20.90 | |
| HomeGoods | 1.84 | 4.12 | |
| Ross | 1.12 | -2.27 | |
| No Preference | 29.47 | 2.43 | |
| Discount Store | 28.50 | -0.01 | |
| Internet | 20.33 | 7.95 | |
| Department Store | 13.19 | -6.57 | |
| Specialty – Home | 3.84 | -31.82 | |
| Membership Warehouse | 1.20 | 6.71 | |
| Home Improvement Store | 0.42 | 7.85 | |
| Catalog | 0.27 | -11.48 | |
| Spend | 16.29 | 4.42 |
Groceries represent the most often shopped retail category. As shown in Table 6, Walmart enjoys the highest share with a solid growth rate. Others that show an increase are Aldi, Costco and Target. Grocery stores overall, while claiming over half of shoppers, are declining at a rate of 2.44%. The internet is still small at 2.11% but is growing at the fastest rate. In addition to asking about the store most often, respondents were also asked to indicate from a list of 56 stores that they have visited in the last 90 days. The stores column in Table 5 represents the mean number for those compared to their favorite. Costco and Amazon shoppers report visiting more stores. Grocery Store shoppers, overall, visit fewer stores than either Membership Warehouses or Internet shoppers. The No Preference level is the lowest among groceries compared to any other categories; however, it has a solid increase of 3.92%.
Table 6: Groceries
| 2024 | AGR % | Stores | |
| Walmart | 27.57 | 4.11 | 3.83 |
| Kroger | 7.48 | -0.65 | 3.98 |
| Aldi | 5.72 | 4.57 | 4.02 |
| Publix | 4.03 | -1.37 | 3.96 |
| Shoprite | 2.80 | -3.82 | 3.94 |
| Costco | 2.67 | 3.05 | 4.56 |
| Safeway | 2.23 | -4.49 | 4.18 |
| HEB | 2.21 | 0.86 | 3.85 |
| Target | 2.16 | 3.46 | 4.01 |
| Amazon | 1.74 | 0.33 | 5.55 |
| No Preference | 6.50 | 3.92 | 3.63 |
| Internet | 2.11 | 16.55 | 5.38 |
| Convenience Store | 0.08 | 6.14 | |
| Discount Store | 31.99 | 3.53 | 3.82 |
| Membership Warehouse | 4.40 | 2.48 | 4.49 |
| Grocery Store | 51.22 | -2.44 | 3.85 |
| Drugstore | 0.06 | -9.02 | |
| Spend | 339.01 | 1.03 |
Health and Beauty Aids (HBA), as shown in Table 7, again shows Walmart with a solid lead, with Amazon well behind but with rapidly increasing growth. The biggest decline is Rite Aid. The Discount Store is the leading store category, followed by the Drug Store. Specialty stores, such as Ulta and Sephora, also show solid gains. The No Preference level is low, with only a moderate level of increase at 2.0%.
Table 7: Health and Beauty Aids
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| Walmart | 28.29 | 0.56 |
| CVS | 14.12 | -0.33 |
| Amazon | 8.39 | 9.65 |
| Target | 7.53 | -0.76 |
| Walgreens | 7.29 | -3.39 |
| Ulta | 2.68 | 4.80 |
| Sephora | 1.99 | 2.42 |
| Kroger | 1.61 | -2.26 |
| Costco | 1.60 | 2.36 |
| Rite Aid | 1.36 | -18.99 |
| No Preference | 10.88 | 2.10 |
| Discount Store | 39.60 | -0.45 |
| Drugstore | 23.06 | -2.99 |
| Internet | 9.03 | 8.58 |
| Grocery Store | 6.35 | -4.26 |
| Membership Warehouse | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| Convenience Store | 0.03 | 13.21 |
| Spend | 49.38 | 3.44 |
Prescription drugs are a category, unlike the others. Walmart drops to third, with CVS leading well ahead of Walgreens, as shown in Table 8. Others include other institutional sources. The overall Drugstore category shows a very small decline; the Internet has a very solid increase, with No Preference showing a solid increase at 4.05%. Government involvement and insurance subsidies undoubtedly have a great impact on this category.
Table 8: Prescription Drugs
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| CVS | 24.03 | 0.00 |
| Walgreens | 15.23 | 0.00 |
| Walmart | 9.95 | 0.00 |
| Other | 8.91 | -0.02 |
| Rite Aid | 2.61 | -0.04 |
| Amazon | 2.32 | 0.04 |
| Kroger | 1.76 | -0.01 |
| Publix | 1.52 | 0.01 |
| Express Scripts | 1.26 | 0.00 |
| OptumRx | 1.06 | 0.03 |
| No Preference | 24.83 | 0.01 |
| Drugstore | 46.70 | -0.44 |
| No Preference | 24.83 | 4.05 |
| Discount Store | 11.65 | -2.22 |
| Grocery Store | 7.89 | -2.07 |
| Internet | 2.69 | 10.70 |
| Membership Warehouse | 1.11 | -4.76 |
| Spend | 34.96 | 0.69 |
As shown in Table 9, home improvement is led by Home Improvement Stores, Home Depot, and Lowe’s, both of which have experienced solid declines. Walmart is again in third with a solid increase, followed by Amazon with a considerably larger increase. No Preference also increases at 3.39%.
Table 9: Home Improvement
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| Home Depot | 29.87 | -1.29 |
| Lowe’s | 20.07 | -3.96 |
| Walmart | 6.55 | 2.72 |
| Amazon | 5.13 | 11.47 |
| Menards | 3.22 | -5.38 |
| ACE Hardware | 2.73 | -1.30 |
| Target | 1.14 | 3.99 |
| No Preference | 26.44 | 3.39 |
| Home Improvement Store | 56.31 | -2.57 |
| Discount Store | 8.19 | 2.45 |
| Internet | 5.70 | 11.08 |
| Department Store | 0.57 | -17.56 |
| Membership Warehouse | 0.37 | 7.98 |
| Spend | 63.2 | 3.46 |
Electronics is dominated by Best Buy as shown in Table 10, but with a solid decrease. Walmart is again third, but behind a rapidly growing Amazon. No Preference is nearly the largest category, increasing at a solid 3.65%.
Table 10: Electronics
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| Best Buy | 25.72 | -3.91 |
| Amazon | 18.76 | 3.58 |
| Walmart | 16.30 | 0.20 |
| Target | 3.63 | -0.49 |
| Costco | 1.77 | -0.24 |
| Apple | 1.60 | 9.35 |
| eBay | 0.86 | 4.52 |
| Sam’s Club | 0.42 | -2.39 |
| No Preference | 24.82 | 3.65 |
| Specialty | 25.72 | -3.91 |
| Discount Store | 20.55 | -0.10 |
| Internet | 20.54 | 3.20 |
| Membership Warehouse | 2.37 | -0.86 |
| Department Store | 0.64 | -20.05 |
| Spend | 38.60 | 2.44 |
The last category, Sporting Goods, is led by Dick’s Sporting Goods, which is also increasing, as shown in Table 11. Amazon is second with the largest growth. Walmart is again third with a small decline. Specialty stores show a decrease, indicating that smaller competitors are struggling. The No Preference category is the highest among the eight categories. The No Preference growth is still solid at 1.15%.
Table 11: Sporting Goods
| 2024 | AGR % | |
| Dicks Sporting Goods | 19.29 | 0.63 |
| Amazon | 11.43 | 7.21 |
| Walmart | 9.36 | -0.77 |
| Academy | 3.48 | -1.03 |
| Target | 2.09 | 0.41 |
| Big 5 Sporting Goods | 1.32 | -9.84 |
| Nike | 1.05 | 10.03 |
| REI | 0.58 | -1.27 |
| Bass Pro Shops | 0.42 | 1.78 |
| No Preference | 42.63 | 1.15 |
| Specialty | 26.87 | -3.05 |
| Internet | 12.38 | 6.85 |
| Discount Store | 12.22 | -1.12 |
| Department Store | 0.72 | -21.73 |
| Membership Warehouse | 0.58 | 5.46 |
| Spend | 21.61 | 4.21 |
Table 12 compares the eight categories. The average No-Preference level is 23.5%. This varies somewhat by retail category, as indicated in the index. Home Improvement and Bedding are very similar. Sporting Goods and Groceries are outliers, which may relate to the frequency of purchase. About 21.7% of shopping seems to occur at a discount store, 10.8% on the Internet, and 1.6% at a membership Warehouse.
Table 12: Market Share by Retail Category
| Women’s | Bedding | Groceries | HBA | Drugs | Home | Electronics | Sporting | Average | |
| No Pref. | 22.5 | 29.5 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 24.8 | 26.4 | 24.8 | 42.6 | 23.5 |
| Index | 95.9 | 125.4 | 27.6 | 46.3 | 105.6 | 112.4 | 105.5 | 181.3 | |
| Department | 22.1 | 13.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 9.2 | ||||
| Discount | 20.7 | 28.5 | 32.0 | 39.6 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 20.5 | 12.2 | 21.7 |
| Internet | 13.4 | 20.3 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 20.5 | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| Membership | 0.5 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Specialty | 17.0 | 3.8 | 56.3 | 25.7 | 26.9 | 26.0 | |||
| Grocery | 51.2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 21.8 | |||||
| Drugstore | 23.1 | 46.7 | 34.9 | ||||||
Table 13 shows the change over the past ten years. The largest increase is in the Internet, with an average of 9.58%. Discount Stores are relatively flat. Membership Warehouses enjoy a solid increase. Special Stores, and especially Department Stores, have sharp declines.
Table 13: AGR Percent by Retail Category
| Women’s | Bedding | Groceries | HBA | Drugs | Home | Electronics | Sporting | Average | |
| No Pref. | 3.85 | 2.43 | 3.92 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 3.39 | 3.65 | 1.15 | 2.56 |
| Index | 150.08 | 94.84 | 153.11 | 81.96 | 0.43 | 132.07 | 142.49 | 45.02 | |
| Department | -9.12 | -6.57 | -20.05 | -21.73 | -14.37 | ||||
| Discount | 0.02 | -0.01 | 3.53 | -0.45 | -2.22 | 2.45 | -0.10 | -1.12 | 0.26 |
| Internet | 11.72 | 7.95 | 16.55 | 8.58 | 10.70 | 11.08 | 3.20 | 6.85 | 9.58 |
| Membership | 6.66 | 6.71 | 2.48 | 2.23 | -4.76 | 7.98 | -0.86 | 5.46 | 3.24 |
| Specialty | 0.11 | -31.82 | -2.57 | -3.91 | -3.05 | -8.25 | |||
| Grocery | -2.44 | -4.26 | -2.07 | -2.92 | |||||
| Drugstore | -2.99 | -0.44 | -1.71 | ||||||
Over the past ten years, No Preference overall across several retail categories has increased at an average annual rate of 2,56%. As of 2024, the level is 23.5%. The largest increase is the Internet with an average of 9.58%. Discount Stores are relatively flat. Membership Warehouses enjoy a solid increase. Special Stores, and especially Department Stores, have sharp declines.
In terms of product brands, there is a moderate inverse relationship between the share size and growth rate for private labels, compared to a weaker relationship for no preference. Both are, however, increasing. Attempting to explain these, purchasing frequency has almost no relationship with private label share and no preference share. A similar pattern is seen with the purchase cycle and private label and a weak inverse relation with no preference share. It is also worth noting that private label and no preference share are moderately related.
Assuming continued linear growth for the next ten years, the overall private label share would reach 14.2%, and no preference share would reach 50.4%. This combines these leaves in only 34.4% of manufacturers’ brands. Today, in 2024, that number is 47.6%, representing a 25.6% decrease in the overall manufacturers’ share. This compares to the current 23.5% and a ten-year forecast of 29.5%.